49ers at Cowboys: First place in the NFC West travels to Arlington as 3.5-point favorites

The San Francisco 49ers sit at 7-1 and in first place in the NFC West, and they head to AT&T Stadium to face a Dallas Cowboys team that is 4-5 overall and 1-3 at home. On paper, this is a team playing well against one struggling in its own building. Let's look at the film, or at least the numbers.

Storyline 1: The offense is humming

Brock Purdy has thrown 17 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, completing 163 of 236 passes for 1,980 yards. Christian McCaffrey leads the ground game with 457 yards and 9 touchdowns on 102 carries, and George Kittle leads the receivers with 38 catches for 483 yards and 5 scores.

Here's what to watch: balance. When a team can lean on a back who finds the end zone that often and a tight end who moves the chains, the defense can't just pin its ears back on passing downs. That's what keeps Purdy in manageable situations.

Storyline 2: Dallas can score, too

Don't let the record fool you. Dak Prescott has 2,381 yards and 16 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. CeeDee Lamb has 70 catches for 904 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Javonte Williams has 629 rushing yards and 9 scores. The total sits at 55.5, and the oddsmakers clearly expect points.

Their last five: wins at Indianapolis (27-23) and at Philadelphia (38-21), but also a 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona, a 23-13 loss at Green Bay and a 24-16 home loss to Tampa Bay. That's a team that can look good in spurts but hasn't strung it together.

San Francisco's last five: wins over Denver (24-14), at Seattle (32-29), over Washington (23-17) and over Las Vegas (38-17), with a 29-20 loss at Atlanta in the mix. The Seattle win came by three points, so the Niners have shown they can win tight ones.

Storyline 3: The injury report

Both sides have bodies in question. For the 49ers, Mike Evans (Achilles tendinitis), Deommodore Lenoir (foot), Renardo Green (back) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) are all listed as questionable, and C.J. West is on injured reserve. Two corners and two receivers on the questionable list is a worry. If both corners are limited against Lamb, the secondary rotation gets tested.

Dallas lists George Pickens (hamstring), Joey Porter Jr. (ankle), DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) and KaVontae Turpin (ribs) as questionable, and tight end Luke Schoonmaker is out.

How to watch

Sunday, Nov. 15, 4:25 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Broadcast on Fox.

Our take

This is my opinion: the Niners are the better team right now, and the number of 3.5 feels about right. Dallas will score, so I expect this to be a one-score game into the fourth quarter. San Francisco's balance and the way it has won close games tip it. Take the 49ers, 31-27, with the caveat that the injury report could change my mind by kickoff.