Warriors at Pelicans: Golden State seeks a sequel to its 138-87 rout
The Warriors (8-5) visit a Pelicans team that has lost five straight, but a thin Golden State roster makes this less of a formality than the last meeting.
Last time these teams met, the Warriors won 138-87. That was a 51-point margin, and it's the entire season series so far: GS leads 1-0. Now Golden State (8-5, 2nd in the Pacific Division) heads to New Orleans to face a Pelicans team at 4-9 overall and 3-5 at home.
Here's my hypothesis: the rematch will be much closer than that game, because the input data has changed.
Storyline 1: The injury report is a deployment problem
Golden State lists five players out:
- Stephen Curry (abdomen)
- Brandon Williams (hamstring)
- Kristaps Porzingis (illness)
- Moses Moody (knee surgery)
- Jimmy Butler III (knee surgery)
Curry leads the team in scoring at 27.8 points per game. Take him out and you lose the primary source of output. Draymond Green (7.5 assists) and Yaxel Lendeborg (7.4 rebounds) are the other season leaders to lean on.
New Orleans isn't healthy either. Dejounte Murray, Bryce McGowens, Yves Missi, Trey Murphy III and Trendon Watford are all out. That's five a side, so neither team gets to claim a depth advantage.
Storyline 2: Two teams moving in different directions
Golden State's last five: W vs MIA 120-100, W vs ORL 126-119 in overtime, W vs NO 138-87, L at HOU 115-108, L at SA 123-85. That's three straight wins after two road losses.
Road form is the caveat. The Warriors are 2-4 away from home this season.
New Orleans has lost five in a row: MIN 115-109, at LAC 139-123, at GS 138-87, BKN 145-111 and MEM 142-111. In those five games the Pelicans allowed 139, 138, 145 and 142 points in four of them. That's a defensive regression that hasn't been patched yet.
Storyline 3: Who carries the Pelicans?
Zion Williamson leads New Orleans at 21.7 points per game. Jeremiah Fears (4.9 assists) and Derik Queen (6.3 rebounds) lead the other categories. With Murphy and Murray out, the offense runs through that trio even more than usual.
Worth noting: the Pelicans lost to Minnesota by only 6 in their most recent game, so they aren't completely broken.
How to watch
Date/time: Monday, Nov. 16, 8 p.m. ET Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans Broadcast: GCSEN, Pelicans.com
Our take
This is a small sample, and one 51-point blowout shouldn't set expectations for a second meeting. With Curry out, I expect Golden State's scoring to dip, and the Pelicans' home court plus the Warriors' 2-4 road record narrow the gap. Still, five straight losses and a leaky defense make New Orleans a team I'd rather bet against. My pick: Warriors by a handful of points, in a game that stays competitive into the fourth quarter.